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And in Europe, there’s this push and pull of fiscal policy across the continent. We think that continues for next year, and so they’re probably not quite going to get to their 5 percent growth target. Now that anodyne view, though, masks some heterogeneity around the world; and importantly, some real uncertainty about different ways things could possibly go. Serena, thank you so much for taking the time to talk with me today and let me ask the questions of you.

Dollar Weakens While Markets Brace For Fiscal Stimulus In Japan

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Meta: Ai Infrastructure Spending Will Shape Long Term Earnings Power

I think last year we had some preference, at least for U.S. equities. We recommend equities over credit and government bonds, with a preference for U.S. assets. Particularly those related to AI CapEx investment. So, with that backdrop, could you just broadly tell us what the investment strategy should be in 2026? But cross-asset strategy depended so much on identifying correlations, opportunities – all in a world that is still adapting to the new geopolitical dynamics and what seemed like evolving rules.

Our take though is that the data are going to push them in a different direction. She thinks sitting at 2 percent for the policy rate, which the ECB thinks of as neutral, then that’s the right place for them to be. That’s similar, I would say, to a Everestex reviews lot of other developed markets’ central banks. The Fed is always of central importance to most people in markets. That spending could just stay strong, and we might see this upside surprise where the spending really dominates the scene.

Us Stock Market Outlook: Where We See Investing Opportunities In February

• So, with that backdrop, could you just broadly tell us what the investment strategy should be in 2026?
• From our perspective, the policy choices being made are growth positive for 2026 and are largely in line with our ‘run it hot’ thesis.
• Global inflation and growth should moderate next year, but the range of possible economic outcomes is wide as uncertainty remains high.
• And that frees up markets to shift the focus from global macro concerns, which of course have dominated this year, to more micro asset specific narratives.

Because the idea is you have a sharp pullback in investment in the next 12 months, which could trigger a pretty cascading effect. I think the high-yield market will be more insulated from this, which means outperformance versus higher quality corporate bonds. But there’s also like a very interesting technical component there, which is, as we expect, a surge in investment grade issuance to fund AI related CapEx. I think this time around as the distribution of outcomes on tariffs, I think, has become a bit narrower, it’s very much more about asset specific stories. Especially those, I think, emanated from trade tensions, which you alluded to earlier. Are there any other big rotations versus more of the same that you really want to highlight for folks?

Markets Valuation Overview

• And in Europe, there’s this push and pull of fiscal policy across the continent.
• Year-over-year figures compare currently reported data to full-quarter data one year prior and are subject to change.
• In an "outstanding" 2025, Nasdaq exceeds $5 billion in net revenue for the first time as as both top-line and bottom-line metrics saw strong growth.
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• But the tension for the ECB, for example, is that President Lagarde has said she thinks; she thinks the disinflationary process is over.

But the number really, kind of, masks the evolution over time. A little bit more than that for global GDP growth on like a Q4-over-Q4 basis. Over the next few years, it’s going to be a real boost to the supply side of the economy. So, I think for now, AI is dominating the demand side of the economy. It’s supported by this business investment spending.

Stock Market Indexes Today

Which companies have driven the market over the last 7 days? More promisingly, the market is up 14% over the past year.

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Outside the U.S., most economies trend towards potential growth and neutral policy rates by end of 2026, but the timing and the trajectory vary. Our economists’ base case sees continued disinflation and growth converging towards potential by 2027, with the possibility that the potential itself improves. Last year, the difficulty of predicting policy really complicated our task. The risks and costs of each strategy or product we offer cannot be indicated here because the financial instruments in which they are invested vary each strategy or product. This material represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific time and is not intended to be a forecast or guarantee of future results. This material represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events or a guarantee of future results.

Stocks’ Sharp Rebound Is Only Making Investors More Nervous

We see further tailwinds supporting the banks, including potential for deregulation that already seems to be boosting M&A activity, and a generally healthy credit outlook, with stability in loan books and delinquency rates. Our analysis found the earnings contribution to be even greater among the AI-powered tech leaders. As shown in the chart below, the return of tech and some other AI-exposed sectors has been driven more by earnings than multiple expansion. This type of nuance and dispersion speaks to the importance of deep bottom-up analysis to fully understand the business case and fundamental strength of each company considered for investment.

In California, a new redistricting measure could flip several house seats; and in New Jersey and Virginia Democrat candidates, won with meaningfully higher margins than polls suggested was likely. In last week’s elections, Democrats outperformed expectations. Please be sure to tune into the second half of our conversation tomorrow to hear how we’re thinking about investment strategy in the year ahead. And we’ve tried to add in just a little bit more in terms of productivity growth from AI. In numbers, that’s about 3 percent growth. We think that builds over time, probably takes a couple of years.

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• The AI theme has broadened out to markets like South Korea and Taiwan over the past year, with their strength in manufacturing AI hardware – especially semiconductors – driving gains.
• The risks and costs of each strategy or product we offer cannot be indicated here because the financial instruments in which they are invested vary each strategy or product.
• As a global investment manager and fiduciary to our clients, our purpose at BlackRock is to help everyone experience financial well-being.
• Gold is expected to remain strong in 2026 after repeatedly hitting record highs this year.
• We advocate for effective and resilient capital markets.
• Our macro strategists expect government bond yields to stay range bound, and it is really a story of two halves.

Future potential moves investors are watching, like additional regulation or targeted stimulus, would likely come the same way. The administration has leaned heavily on executive powers to set trade policy, including the so-called Liberation Day tariffs, and to push regulatory changes. While Democrats are favored today, redistricting, turnout, and evolving voter concerns could reshape the landscape in the months to come. It might not be too early to think about the midterms as a market catalyst.